I finally got my hands on a 2024 Players Handbook and, right after checking whether they nerfed fireball (nope), I flipped to the back to Appendix B: Creature Stat Blocks to give the monsters a quick look. Which way is monster design going? Will I need to make a new monster manual on a business card?
The 2024 Players Handbook includes a few dozen monsters, mostly low-level beasts. In fact, every monster, except the CR 4 elephant, is between CR 0 and 1. So there’s really insufficient data to make any extrapolations at all outside that very limited scope. But that shouldn’t stop us from jumping to wild conclusions!
low-level monsters
First of all, let me talk about the previous 2014 Monster Manual monsters. Based on my previous arithmetic I’ve described in other posts, monsters are designed so that (given the monster-design parameters described in the 2014 Dungeon Masters Guide: assume all attacks hit, area attacks hit 2 creatures, etc) an average monster’s damage per round is roughly 1/3 its hit points, and damage per round rises about 5 points per point of Challenge Rating.
Given that 2024 5e characters look more powerful than ever, and given that there was already a perception that 2014 monsters were a bit too feeble, we’d expect to see monsters get stronger to keep up. In fact, the developers have indicated that they’d be buffing monsters. Does the new 2024 PH monster data bear this out?
Well, there is one problem with the data that prevents really meaningful analysis. Two, actually. One is that, as mentioned, the new data really only covers up to Challenge Rating 1: monsters suitable for level 1 and 2 characters. At that level, 2014 monsters are NOT too feeble. In fact, level 1 is usually considered the most swingy and dangerous level: it’s really higher-level monsters that need the buff.
The other problem is that the 2024 data mostly consists of beasts (bears, alligators, apes, wolves, etc). In 2014 D&D, low-level beasts are even more overpowered than other low-level monsters. Consider, for example, the 2014 war horse: at CR 1/2 and 19 hit points, it can deal 11 damage with its hoof, and then hit you with another 11 damage as a bonus action if it knocks you prone. A CR 1/4 elk with 13 hit points can charge you for 13 damage. These guys are not even CR 1, and can deal damage equal to their hit points, and can one-shot most level 1 characters or kill them outright on a crit. That’s a far cry from higher-level non-beast monsters, which generally settle down to do damage equal to 1/3 their hit points maximum each round.
So how does the 2024 PH handle low-level monsters, especially beasts?
It leaves AC and hit point totals pretty much alone, fiddling with them here and there but not making big changes. When it comes to damage, it actually reduces low-level beast damage by a few points on average. For instance, the warhorse’s damage is reduced to 14 damage on a charge, and the elk’s to 9. The rough edges have been filed off. Overall, low-level beasts now deal DPR equal to about half their hit points. In my opinion, this is a much-needed nerf, even in a world where every player gets free feats. Unfortunately, it doesn’t tell us much about life outside level 1.
high-level monsters
For higher-level monsters, the only data points we have are the elephant (CR 4) and the green dragon preview on enworld (CR 22). For monster benchmarking purposes, this data is almost worthless, because a) it’s just 2 data points! and b) dragons, like beasts, are among the most overpowered monsters in the game, regularly clocking in with much higher statistics than their Challenge Rating cohorts.
Nevertheless, we can glean a bit from comparing these two monsters against their 2014 versions. The elephant, while keeping the same AC (12) and HP (76), now deals more damage. If we assume an elephant gets in one trample in 3 rounds of combat, the 2014 version can deal about 25 damage while the 2024 version does 36. Anything interesting about those numbers? Its DPR used to be almost exactly 1/3 its hit point total, and now it’s been raised to exactly half of its hit point total.
Turning to the 2024 ancient green dragon (CR 22), we see that its AC is the same as the 2014 version and its HP is boosted a tad, from 385 to 402. (That’s about the same hit point total as the CR 26 demon prince Orcus.) The dragon’s damage routine has been completely redesigned, and for a complex monster like this there are a million ways to play it, but for apples-to-apples we’ll just try to maximize straight damage here. The two dragons have the exact same breath weapon, but on a non-breath weapon round the 2014 green dragon can drop 124 damage (a bite, two claws, and three tails), and the 2024 version can deal 162 damage (six Rends). Factoring in the breath weapon once every 3 turns, those DPRs rise to 150 and 186 respectively (again, assuming the breath weapons hit 2 targets who fail their saves).
For what it’s worth, the green dragon’s damage output remains very high, at closer to 1/2 its hit points than 1/3 its hit points.
crystal ball time
So what’s my prediction for 2024 D&D monster power? Will monsters get a boost or not?
With the tiny amount of data we have, it would be irresponsible to speculate. So here’s my speculation:
Monsters will be designed with approximately the same formulae. However, their damage will get a boost. My prediction is that, on average, a monster’s damage per round will be about 1/2 its hit points, maybe a touch less.
Of course, this prediction could be totally wrong! With only two high-level monsters to look at, it could be that the elephant and the dragon (a beast and a dragon type – OP types in 2014) are OP in 2024 and we won’t really see a different monster design at all. Time will tell. Can we skip the boring ol’ players handbook and DMG and get right to the monster manual please?
